中国各银行将公布因美国次贷危机所遭受的损失

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英国《金融时报》马利德(Richard McGregor)、雅米尔•安代利尼(Jamil Anderlini)北京报道
2007年8月14日 星期二

预计包括中国银行(BoC)在内的中国国有银行在未来几周发布上半年业绩时，将公布自己受美国次级贷款市场影响而遭受的损失。

不过，无论是以政府持有的数千亿美元，还是以商业银行的海外投资来衡量，中国受到的影响似乎相对有限。

倘若中国能有效遏制遍及西方金融市场的次级贷款危机带来的影响，中国政府应该感谢其保守的国家投资政策和坚持资本控制。

近年来，经过重组和在海外成功上市的中国大型国有银行增加了在外国的投资。但分析人士指出，它们在此过程中没有承担巨大的新风险。

JP摩根(JP Morgan)驻香港的李晶(Jing Ulrich)表示：“在传统上，中国各银行对自己在海外的风险都很谨慎。”她指出，这些银行仅购买了少量评级较高的债务抵押债券(CDO)，即处于这次危机中心的捆绑抵押贷款。“与这些银行的总资产相比，出现什么损失也应该是微不足道的。”

评级机构惠誉评级(Fitch)驻北京的银行业分析师Charlene Chu表示：“更大的影响可能来自本次市场动荡对投资者信心和经济气候的间接影响。”

中国最大的外汇银行中国银行上周告知投资者会出现亏损，该行官员表示，中国银行持有美国次级抵押贷款债券的信息将在8月下旬发布半年报时公布。不过，一位负责监管金融机构的高级官员向英国《金融时报》表示：“中国政府目前更关心的是内部问题，比如通胀。”

由于用1.33万亿美元外汇储备进行海外投资，中国政府承受的风险比商业银行大得多，但同样采取了保守的投资哲学。

中国外汇储备的具体构成属于国家机密，但据信，其中有70%左右以美元工具的形式持有。近年来，中国已经从把关注点从几乎完全专注于美国国债，转向了抵押贷款支持的证券。

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原文如下：

CHINESE BANKS TO REVEAL SUBPRIME LOSSES

By Richard McGregor and Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Chinese state lenders, including the Bank of China, are expected to announce losses from their exposure to the US subprime lending market when they release their first-half results in the coming weeks.

But the exposure of China, in terms of both the government's hundreds of billions of dollars of US dollar holdings and the overseas investments of its commercial banks, appears relatively limited.

If China can contain the fallout from the subprime crisis spreading through financial markets in the west, the government will be able to thank its conservative state investment policies and maintenance of capital controls.

China's large state banks have increased their foreign investments in recent years, following their restructurings and successful listings overseas. But they have not assumed huge new risks in the process, analysts say.

“Chinese banks have traditionally been very cautious in their overseas risk exposure,” said Jing Ulrich, of JP Morgan in Hong Kong, pointing out that they had bought only a small amount of higher-rated collateralised debt obligations, the bundled mortgages at the centre of the crisis. “Any losses should be minimal compared to the banks' total assets.”

Charlene Chu, a Beijing-based banking analyst for Fitch, the ratings agency, said: “[The] bigger impact may come from the indirect effects of this volatility on investor confidence and the economic climate.”

The Bank of China, the country's largest foreign exchange bank, told investors last week to expect losses, and bank officials have said information on its subprime exposure will be released with half-year results in late August. But “the Chinese government is much more concerned right now about internal issues, such as inflation”, a senior official responsible for regulating financial institutions told the Financial Times.

China's government, through the investment overseas of its $1,330bn (�72bn,